26 01 2009
Is Steve Jobs replaceable ?
By Charles, 26 01 2009 à 16:57 - Third season
The 6 month leave of Steve Jobs for medical reasons has set the high-tech media, newpapers, magazines and blogs, on fire.
Analysis and conjectures about the impact of his departure, whether be it temporary or definitive, are flourishing on the net like mushrooms in September. What will Apple become without its charismatic leader ? Can it survive ?
I am not myself a good analyst nor forecaster of what could a company turn into. I am not at all in the business stuff, and I am not an Apple or Jobs specialist. I am just a consumer, an old geek, that sometimes buy the Cupertino firm's products.
But I would like to bring a few points to the debate, with that "wisdom" of mine, pragmatic and uncompromising experience of an old man, full of idiotic certitudes and blurred knowledge.
1. Apple's junkies fear to lose their hero
Many geeks are identifying with Jobs. He is the rebel that dared to fight against the "evil" Microsoft, the creative that invented so much great products they couldn't stop worshiping, the charismatic leader who can be as seductive as he can be vindicative. Jobs is the perfect incarnation of the personality the normal geek wants to be.
Jobs is a hero to many. Would he retire from the scene definitively, they would lose their icon.
If it wasn't Steve Jobs at the head of Apple, it wouldn't have been such a mess about its departure. No other CEO of any other firm is so tightly associated with its company. I believe all the media firestorm would be a soft breeze in comparison if H Lee Scott, the boss of Walmart, was suddenly kidnapped by people from Alpha Centauri.
Would these geeks that are fond of Apple products will stop buying ? I guess not. A little less, but what else can they spend money in nowadays ?
Ok, they can buy a Wii and doom their elbow.
2. The financial market has shown little concern in the end

As you can see on the chart above, the announcement of Job's medical leave had no real impact on Apple's shares in the end. Yet, the 14th of January and the next days, you can observe a wide fall (about 10%) but the share quickly recovered, as financial dudes and investors regain trust seeing that everything was finally under control.
As my banker says : "when the shares are ok, everything is ok".
So, why worry.. if the most "easy-to-worry" people in the world, ie the shareholders, aren't afraid, why should we fear for the future of Apple Inc ?
3. Tim Cook is "as bad as" Steve Jobs
Jobs is not as good a CEO as many people say he is. He is, for example, well known to be harsh to his teams, and he is even cited as an example of supposed asshole, in the No asshole rule book.
He is said to be coleric and sometimes despotic. Many apple employees have complained about his style of management.
Tim Cook, who took the interim, seems to be built in the same vein. Fortune has published an interesting portrait of the actual COO of Apple, describying him as no more human as Steve Jobs. He is said to be cold, hard working and very demanding.
So, if the success of Apple can be explained by the tough character of its founder, I guess another "tyrannic" leader could be the good option for the firm.
For the moment, let him try to imitate the original :

4. Many companies have survived theirs founders
Yet many haven't. But in most cases, when it comes to companies of that size, they frequently survive.. and thrive.
In most cases, big companies are founded by visionary, nonconformist, charismatic, genius leaders. Then they get off the boat for some reason, and are later replaced by normal executives, that haven't generally the same aura as their founder, but make pretty good money too.
It's the way things works since the beginning of Capitalism and I guess it's not going to change before a while.
5. Barack Obama has a blackberry
Obama, the new US president, is also a charismatic and visionary character; Yet he doesn't have an Iphone.
Is it a sign ? Can we forecast from it something about Apple's destiny ?
Let's speculate a bit, would you...


